Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Bracketology

Well, it's that time of year again. Let me get into my inner Dick Vitale for this:

IT'S MARCH MADNESS BABY!!!!

For the next 3 weeks, I will get to watch one of my favorite annual sports events. This year is even more fun with UT actually having a legitimate shot at the title. But one of my favorite parts of march madness has been going on all week. That's right....filling out my bracket. For years, this has been one of my favorite things to do.

Here's the catch: I'm terrible at it! I have never won a bracket competition, I usually get beat by a girl, and often I am toward the bottom of my groups. That's the thing....you do research, look at bracket trends (there's always at least one #12-#5 upset) and check what the experts say, and then you get beat by the girl who just picks the highest seed for every game. The whole thing is a total crapshoot. Last year I went upset-heavy in my bracket and the bigger seeds dominated. The year before that I had less upsets, and teams like George Mason rocked the house. Plus, even the biggest NCAA fans can't know everything there is to know about the 65 teams in the tournament. I didn't even know San Diego had a basketball team, but I know that I'm picking them to upset UConn. That's the thing about this game.....you just never know.

This year was very difficult to pick, with no clear dominant team. Plus, I have biases still working against me. I have to pick UT to go all the way, there's no way around it. If I picked against them and they won, I would never forgive myself. Last year I picked Kansas to go all the way, and they got beat early and destroyed my bracket. But, this year they have a good team again, and I don't know if I should just forget about last year or make sure I don't get caught by the same trap again. (I've switched my pick on the Kansas/Clemson sweet 16 game 4 times now).

So, here was my strategy for this year: I did more research than ever, I checked out who's entering the tournament with momentum and who slipped their way in (Andy Katz's hot/not list), checked experts from ESPN, Sports Illustrated, and CBS, looked at each matchup carefully, tried to avoid cute upsets, avoided biases except for UT, had a very good reason for picking upsets supported by other experts, and tried to pick safe teams for going into later rounds (no 7 seeds in the final four this year).

So my final four: UT, Georgetown, UCLA, Texas
Championship: UT over UCLA

Big Upsets: George Mason over Notre Dame, St. Joeseph's over Oklahoma, Davidson over Gonzaga, USC over Wisconsin (Round 2), Arizona over West Virginia, San Diego over UConn,

(I toyed with Pitt over Memphis in the Sweet 16. Should I go for it? I don't know. I still have till 11:00 tomorrow to change it up).

Well, there you go. I probably wouldn't listen to me, because like I said, I'm going to lose. But, I'll be watching as much as I can. (*Dick Vitale voice*: It's March Madness baby! You gotta love it!)